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This forum is about wrong numbers in science, politics and the media. It respects good science and good English.

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Pertussis Study

Sandy discussed a pertussis study last week.

1st things first: all people within reach of my voice have been vaccinated. Not being vaccinated goes into the "I am a stupid flaming idiot" category of decision making. I stress this because what I am about to say, might make it look otherwise.

The relative risk of 23 looks suspiciously like the relative risk of Lung cancer and smoking (I know it is not related it is just a coinkidink).

But to throw a simple wrench into the works, I looked up DPT immunization rate here and it show 96% for the US, which doesn't quite jibe with the 0.5% Sandy quoted. The reason it was 0.5% in that particular study is that there were only 3, vaccine refusers in the control group.

THREE. I will leave the discussion of the statistical significance of THREE to others more qualified.

But lets ask the reciprocal question. What is the probability that these IDIOTS who refuse to give their child the simple and cheap protection from a deadly disease, will have children that WON'T get the disease?

I agree with the conclusion of the study. I am deeply suspicious of any result that has 3 people in the denominator.

Re: Pertussis Study

I am not qualified to discuss the statistical validity of the study, but was disturbed to read that post-vaccine immunity wears off.

The reason is that I am virtually a professional grandpa, and parents practically hand me their brats to settle when they fret. They think it is my natural authority, but the fact is that like other grandpas, I have learned that small children have an off-switch, and where it is.

I would be appalled to think I might be passing on the Whoop to an unvaccinated child.