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This forum is about wrong numbers in science, politics and the media. It respects good science and good English.

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The New Number

I seem to recall that "the science was settled" and AGW was a reality.
I have now noticed to prominence of a new number in the reporting.
In stead of telling us that Runaway global warming is a certainty we now see confidence levels being bandied about.
Maybe it's just me and maybe they were doing this all along and I've just caught on, but the common value quoted is 90%.

Would you bet your life's savings on a 90% confidence level?

Re: The New Number

90% is a YOTA number from the IPCC. I have heard it bandied about by many people in the last several years. I am sure they used some really scientific process to come up with it though. "Hey, Michael, what do you think the chance that humans caused this warming we haven't actually found is?"

Michael: "I am 90% sure it's humans causing the terrible things out there. Who else could it be? The dolphins? It has to be someone. Can't blame the sun can we, that's like a Gazillion miles away!"

Re: The New Number

Indeed. Interestingly wasn't the MET office claiming a 7/8 chance (87.5%) chance of a mild winter?

Re: The New Number

I certainly wouldn't bet my life savings (or house) on it! Especially as I suspect it'll start to creep down the way over the coming years.

Reminds me of the old cartoon of the guy wandering along the street with a sandwich board declaring "The end of the world is nigh on..
1 Jan 1968 (crossed out)
14th June 1975 (crossed out)
31st July 2015