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This forum is about wrong numbers in science, politics and the media. It respects good science and good English.

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Science made impotent

Science made impotent

They can't avoid the use of us Anti-AGWers as a case in point.

They also don't quite recognize geese and ganders.

Re: Science made impotent

Another reason to doubt.

This is for events over the next six months, IPCC would have us believe they know what events are going to happen 50 years from now!! ROFLMAO

Hurricane Hype? Predictions Wrong Half the Time

An NBC Miami review of nearly a decade of pre-season predictions of hurricane season shows the two major predicting institutions are right about half the time.

In some categories, they fail even more frequently.

Predicting these hurricanes and storms is imperfect to be sure, as our review of the success of those pre-season predictions since 2001.

First, in predicting named storms, NOAA has fallen within its range 5 times in 9 years. Dr. Gray has hit his number just once. But if granted a range like NOAA uses, Dr. Gray has been right 5 times also in 9 years.

Of course, predicting hurricanes rather than storms is even more vital.

In that category, NOAA has been right since 2001 just twice. Dr. Gray has been right just once. But, again, granted a range, Dr. Gray has been right 3 times.

In sum, they are roughly equal with a rather poor success rate although one could argue they provide a general idea.