An NBC Miami review of nearly a decade of pre-season predictions of hurricane season shows the two major predicting institutions are right about half the time.
In some categories, they fail even more frequently.
Predicting these hurricanes and storms is imperfect to be sure, as our review of the success of those pre-season predictions since 2001.
First, in predicting named storms, NOAA has fallen within its range 5 times in 9 years. Dr. Gray has hit his number just once. But if granted a range like NOAA uses, Dr. Gray has been right 5 times also in 9 years.
Of course, predicting hurricanes rather than storms is even more vital.
In that category, NOAA has been right since 2001 just twice. Dr. Gray has been right just once. But, again, granted a range, Dr. Gray has been right 3 times.
In sum, they are roughly equal with a rather poor success rate although one could argue they provide a general idea.