This forum is about wrong numbers in science, politics and the media. It respects good science and good English.
Prof. Chubb: [...] With respect to this cooling stuff, I have seen the claim, but the evidence that I have seen is that the last decade has been the warmest decade that we have ever had on this planet, so I do not know what this cooling stuff means.
Mr HUSIC: Finally, do you think the government's carbon price legislation that has been put before us is
sufficiently based on the science around climate change?
Prof. Chubb: [...] There are some uncertainties in it—of course there are—but, as I said, if you are 95 per cent certain your house is going to burn down, what do you do? Nothing?
Mr HUSIC: Thanks, Professor.
"95% certain that your house is going to burn down?"
This should probably say
"If you are 95% certain that you want your house to burn down!"
It is impossible to be 95% certain of anything. You are either certain of it, certain that it is untrue, or uncertain.
One can talk of being '95% confident' but a more accurate phrase would be "I estimate the probability of this to be .95 [or 95%]"
They can be 95% certain of the results;but,what if the data used is not accurate?
Most disease studies use data from death certificuts and about 30% of the death certificuts give the wrong cause of death as verified by autopsy.