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Something esle caused by climate change...... crime!

Well, it seems even that arch AGW supporter Geofrey Lean at the Telegraph was being a bit cautious over this one but it would seem someone has determined that global warming increases crime.

Now funnily enough there may be some justification for this.
In the first case it has always been a maxim that rain is the policeman's best friend (back in the days when the police reported crimes differently and bothered to turn out to burglaries and the like instead of focussing on helping social workers take children away from their parents or chasing quotas).
It seems burglars and their like no more like to go to work in the rain than many other people.
Of course, that had nothing to do with global warming, it was just that crime reports dropped on rainy days.

On the other hand, as the windfarm subsidies bite into everyone's pockets and the food prices rise as food is burned as fuel, biofuels take over agricultural land etc. more people may find themselves forced into crime.

But while there is a correlation between reported crime and temperature, for example (A Havard study) Lean has a hard time, even for him and he seems normally so nicely gullible on climate matters, accepting the projected growth in crime stats with the IPCC's forecast temperature increases.

Still, that's another PhD student well on his way to accumulating government grants for meaningless research and he will almost certainly gain his doctorate simply on grant winning ability rather than the quality of his research or analytical abilities.

Even Mr Lean has picked up on the fact that the actual data seems to plateau at a certain temperature which the student has chosen to ignore. It may be that criminals are equally work shy when the temperature gets to hot.

Re: Something esle caused by climate change...... crime!

The most surprising thing about that article is Geoffrey Lean's cautious reporting of the claim. It may be related to Lean's fairly enthusiastic endorsement a few years ago (when Lean was working for the Independent) of the claim that switching to unleaded petrol was leading to a significant decline in crime rates around the world:

But I think it's pretty easy to debunk the claim that violent crime rate goes up with temperature from looking at data given for how the historical crime rate has varied in some European countries over the past eight centuries in the paper "Long term historical trends in violent crime" by Manuel Eisner:

The decline in crime rate has been dramatic since the 13th and 14th centuries in England. Table 1 and Figs 1 to 7 give the data. So unless the Medieval Warming Period was much hotter than we've been led to believe, it doesn't look as though the historical crime rate has got much to do with temperature.