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Re: EU contributions

This is a message recently made by Cameron and echoed by many EU "leaders" including Hollande.
However, Wolfgang Schauber recently said exactly the opposite, that when we recognised our mistake we would of course be re-admitted.

Logically, we have to ask if the EU would really reject an application to rejoin from:
1) A world top ten manufacturer
2) The world's fifth largest economy
3) The fourth largest spender on defence and, of course,
5) The second largest contributor to the EU.

This is the EU that would have fast tracked Scotland back in. An economic basket case if they chose independence from the UK.

SO why this declaration against the logic?
Because clearly we will never get another chance to leave. A vote to remain will be final. ANd, while Cameron says if we do remain he will continue to fight for reforms and repatriated powers, as an added inducement perhaps to those inclined still to think he can achieve meaningful change or that the EU is capable of it, the EU scotched that idea straight away with Hollande and Junkers trampling on that.

But let us suppose that we do not know who to believe. The logic of the situation dictates we vote leave as the risk free choice.
If we vote remain and discover our mistake we will not again get the chance to leave. Nor will we know how we would have faired outside though we wills certainly learn from experience inside just who was misleading us.
But if we vote to leave, we will still see what our future might have been on the inside by watching what happens to those still in the EU. And we get to try for ourselves to discover the truth of the Leave Campaigns claims of a better future.
If vote leave was a mistake, no problem, we simply rejoin the EU.
This logic says vote leave is the best option. hence Cameron et all want to cut off this choice even though what they say is blatantly wrong.

Re: EU contributions

Quite Excellent logic,JMW and nicely put.
A pity this piece is not in one of the nationals today.

Re: EU contributions

On the issue of David Cameron claiming that a decision to leave the EU would be irrevocable, it is obviously untrue as a statement in itself as JMW has pointed out.

However I think I did see him being challenged when he made that claim in a debate on one of the TV channels. As I remember it, Cameron clarified that the UK would be very unlikely to be able to go back into the EU on the current supposedly favourable membership terms (being given a rebate and being allowed to opt out of participation in the Eurozone or the Schengen Agreement), implying that if we did try to go back in, it would have to be on the unfavourable standard membership terms like adopting the Euro currency. So it sounds to me like the Conservative party has ruled out the idea of trying to take us back into the EU in the future if we left. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would try to take us back in, if they ever got the chance, even on the unfavourable standard membership terms.

If I had to predict how Brexit is going to go, I think we're likely to end up outside the EU's 'single market', due to the EU not budging on the free movement of people issue, which was a major concern for many Leave voters in the EU referendum. If the UK ends up outside the single market, then I expect that the left-leaning UK political parties, if they can get elected or can form a coalition in the future, will try to regain access to the EU's single market (rather than try to re-join the EU), in an arrangement similar to what non-EU member Norway currently has. In a Norway-type arrangement, the lefties get the freedom of movement of people back, and a lot of the EU regulations would be re-instated.