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The Right Climate Stuff

I don't think a group called "The Right Climate Stuff" (TRCS) has been mentioned previously in this forum. They are a bunch of retired NASA employees who banded together in 2013 to review the work of mainstream climate scientists and have also attempted to model the climate themselves using a simplified 'old school' style of computer model based on their experience of designing spacecraft. The group's website is here:

TRCS

This extract from the main webpage gives a pretty good summary:

"The phrase "Climate Change", currently used by politicians and popular media, has been a politically driven evolutionary change from the more specific scientific phrase "Anthropogenic (Human-Caused) Global Warming" (AGW).

The phrase has become political shorthand for the theorized worst case effects of the increasing atmospheric CO2 and other Greenhouse Gas (GHG) levels during the Industrial Age, believed to be caused primarily from the use of fossil fuels to provide the energy for the industrialized world. These GHG concentrations in our atmosphere (other than the strong naturally occurring GHG provided by water vapor) will always be at trace gas levels, though much less than at previous times of our planet. The theorized worst case effects are predicted by un-validated climate simulation models whose alarming projections have not been supported by the actual data observed so far.

We, a group of retired and highly experienced engineers and scientists from the Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle and International Space Station eras, have volunteered our time and effort conducting an objective, independent assessment of the AGW alarm and reality of the actual threat. We have reviewed hundreds of reports and technical papers relevant to the subject matter, and discussed key issues with experts on both sides of this controversy.

During our pioneering years in the US manned space program, scientific controversy over complex technical issues was commonplace at numerous times when NASA needed to make critical spacecraft design and operational decisions affecting safety of astronauts. We have unique skills and experience in problem identification, specification, root cause analysis and rational decision-making applicable to public policy decisions related to the AGW concern.

To aid in monitoring the AGW concern, we have developed our own simple, but rigorous, earth surface temperature model using Conservation of Energy principles, similar to the way we analyze surface and internal temperature of spacecraft. We have validated the model with 165 years of atmospheric GHG data and data on earth surface temperature variations. We have used this model to forecast what we believe will be the maximum, but small and non-harmful effects on earth surface temperature, from continued un-restricted use of fossil fuels, until they become too scarce and costly to meet the growing energy demand of our planet.

We expect a world-wide, market-driven transition to alternate sources of energy generation will be completed by 2150, leaving less than 600 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, 50 percent more than current levels. Highest levels of CO2 in our atmosphere have exceeded 7000 ppm from greater volcanic activity more than 400 million years ago. Naturally occurring planetary processes reduced atmospheric CO2 levels to a low of about 180 ppm experienced at the last Ice Age glacial maximum about 21,000 years ago. This was dangerously close to the critical 150 ppm limit required for green plants to grow.

We have produced reports which, in our judgment, provide a more realistic projection of the maximum expected earth surface temperature rise over the next 150 years from rising atmospheric GHG levels. We believe that these more realistic projections do not justify the extent to which the UN and others propose to manipulate and likely devastate the various major economies of the world through mandating drastic reductions in the use of fossil fuels."


There is also a recent video presenting a lecture on the simple TRCS Climate Model on this link (about 68 minutes in length, a bit tedious to watch and would be better if they had a highlights video):

Video on TRCS model

The simple model gives a pretty good reproduction of the observed global average surface temperature versus time since 1850. Unlike mainstream climate modellers, they don't attempt to model the prevalent 'noise' in the temperature versus time graph. The predicted maximum temperature rise is 1.2 deg C from today's value by about 2150 (the middle of the 22nd century), with CO2 levels peaking around the same time at 600ppm.

One issue this group points out that you don't hear from mainstream climate scientists is that the CO2 level in the last Ice Age dropped to a level not that much above what might be regarded as an extinction level of CO2 of 150 ppm at which most vegetation stops growing. So Ice Ages appear to be a problem that the whole world should be concerned about, they are not just a problem for high latitude countries.

It looks like TRCS has a certain amount of political influence in the USA as discussions between the group and the Trump transition team are mentioned in the video. I remember there was an interview Trump gave a few months ago where he indicated that he thought CO2 levels had some influence on global warming, and left-liberal journalists seized on this as an indicator of a climbdown where he might not overturn the Obama administration's climate policy, but Trump's perception of the CO2 influence on global temperature is I think more likely to tie up with the TRCS view than the mainstream climate science view.

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Re: The Right Climate Stuff - by Dave Gardner - Apr 16, 2017 2:46pm