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Re: Modern computer modelling

Aircraft Carriers are scary things. They show up off your coast and you are likely to be just a little bit worried. The economics of aircraft carriers is therefor murky. If it gets someone to the conference table, it can pay for itself without the benefit showing up in any model.

How do we inspect that difference?

The HPV vaccine costs $750 for a person under 26. see If you are over 26, in the state of Washington, this vaccination can cost more than $1800 (and is not covered by insurance, people under 26 may get most of it covered). How did they get to this price? By the amount saved the healthcare system in the future.

How much should the price of MMR, Polio, Pertussis, Varicella, etc be if they were based on how much money was saved? MMR, Polio, and Pertussis are all first order vaccinations. The consequences of getting those diseases can result in death in the short term. If you get the disease, you are tap dancing with death.

Varicella is really a 2nd order vaccination. In general, people who get chicken pox survive. Adults who get chicken pox have some complications (Shingles), but few die. There is a danger of pocking though.

HPV is, in my estimation, at least a 3rd order disease. It turns out that just about everyone has had it. Almost no one knew that they had it. The disease went away without them ever knowing they had it. Some people who get it may get cancer 10 to 30 to 50 years from now. (I am highly certain that HPV can be passed through non sexual means).

I am not opposed to the vaccine. Since it doesn't hit my bottom line directly (a 2nd order feedback response problem), my eldest has been given the HPV vaccine. My youngest will get it also. A sexually transmitted disease discussion still has to be had because it doesn't defend against most of them.

Somehow a model was used to make defending against a 3rd order disease more rational than defending against 1st order diseases. Once again, people with science degrees are fixated on the 5th decimal place and sort of losing sight of the 2nd.


Squinting at the walgreens chart, I get about $2000 for a full series of vaccinations for kids. Of this $750 is HPV.

I hope someone here can laugh at my inability to get mad at anyone who doesn't want to pay to defend against 6 of the 30+ strains of HPV..

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HPV vaccine - by Dave Gardner - Jul 2, 2017 1:41pm
Re: HPV vaccine - by Brad Tittle - Jul 3, 2017 5:34pm
Re: HPV vaccine - by Brad Tittle - Jul 3, 2017 5:48pm
Re: Modern computer modelling - by Ian Reid - Jun 29, 2017 4:07pm
Re: Modern computer modelling - by Dave Gardner - Jul 11, 2017 3:26pm
Re: Modern computer modelling - by Brad Tittle - Jul 12, 2017 7:54pm
Re: Modern computer modelling - by Dave Gardner - Aug 28, 2017 12:59pm