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This forum is about wrong numbers in science, politics and the media. It respects good science and good English.

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Re: HPV vaccine

The vaccine only affects 4 of the strains.

This article looks at the efficacy of the vaccine. My conclusion from reading it is ..

If your child is less than 16, it appears to be useful. > 16 the tap dance is already underway. Below 16, the RR is 0.25. As the age increases, the effectiveness decreases. This may be because the older people were already infected and the vaccine seems to have no effect on infections already in place.

I talked to a Pathologist about CIN, CIN2, CIN3. These are rankings of the abnormal cell in the cervix biopsy. Apparently 90% of CIN disappear on their own. CIN2 and CIN3 are more likely to develop into full cancer.

In discussions elsewhere on the subject, I have difficulty trying to explain my discontent with the HPV Vaccine.

My son is about to learn to drive. Step 1 is driving school. The school is outside of the main eduction system. It costs $500. He will go to this school. I will pay for it.

My nervous tick, I attempt to express is as this...

"Given $500, what is more likely to save my son's life***.... the HPV Vaccine or Driving School"

How many $500 questions like this do we have to answer before, HPV Vaccine wins?

As an individual, I have to ask that question. It is just as valid a question for any level of management. The only way to make the HPV Vaccine win is to make the buckets used in the analysis change sizes.

One way to is say "Vaccinated people are 4 times less likely to have CIN2 and CIN3". It looks like people who get the vaccine earlier are less likely to have issues with CIN2 and 3 early on. Presented this way, it looks like a no brainer to do the vaccination. If I exclude all other avenues of life saving and cost saving and fixate solely on the expense of one thing, HPV Vaccine it is.

This is how engineers solve problems. Isolate the problem into manageable chunks and evaluate.

There is a cost $X where it becomes not worth worrying about expending the resource.

*** There is a fallacy here. There is some chance it may save expense for women. For boys, the most likely benefit is from not passing it on to women. But now we are in a convoluted discussion of sexual politics.

Re: HPV vaccine - by Brad Tittle - Jul 3, 2017 5:48pm
Re: Modern computer modelling - by Ian Reid - Jun 29, 2017 4:07pm
Re: Modern computer modelling - by Dave Gardner - Jul 11, 2017 3:26pm
Re: Modern computer modelling - by Brad Tittle - Jul 12, 2017 7:54pm
Re: Modern computer modelling - by Dave Gardner - Aug 28, 2017 12:59pm