Return to Website

Number Watch Web Forum

This forum is about wrong numbers in science, politics and the media. It respects good science and good English.

Number Watch Web Forum
Start a New Topic 
Author
Comment
View Entire Thread
Re: Offshore wind getting cheaper? .... the big lie.....

I think there are a couple of developments that are coming along in the next couple of years which might stem the tide of Greenery in the UK.

The first development is that I think we're likely to exit the EU with no trade deal, and we then revert to trading with the EU on WTO terms like the rest of the world does. In my view, the UK government behaves as though it isn't going to get a trade deal. If you were confident about getting a trade deal with the EU then you would have triggered Article 50 within a few weeks of the Referendum - you would only delay the triggering for 9 months if you were hoping that the EU would somehow soften in its attitude towards you, maybe hoping Juncker would be dismissed. The next thing you'd do if no trade deal was expected would be that you would go for a snap general election after triggering Article 50 - holding the snap election means you don't have to hold the next general election until 2022 instead of 2020, giving you 3 years (instead of 1) for the country to get used to the idea of being out of the EU with no trade deal after leaving in 2019 (only 1 year before the next general election might be a bit short given the extensive platform provided to pro-EU people in the UK broadcasting media). The EU also behaves as though it doesn't want a trade deal, insisting on some absurdly high exit fee being agreed to before allowing trade talks to go ahead.

The advantage of exiting with no trade deal, for the sceptic of Greenery, is that the UK is then decoupled from the Green regulations and the general Green-leaning influence of the EU. With a trade deal, even if somehow the UK managed to extract major concessions from the EU on freedom of movement, I can imagine UK politicians conceding to the EU on the environmental stuff.

The second development is that I think that Boris Johnson could replace Theresa May as leader (and PM) in two or three years time. Boris would be the ideal man to take on Corbyn as he has a good track record in defeating the Loony Left, having managed to keep the Loony Left's Ken Livingstone out of office as mayor of London for eight years. Boris has shown some scepticism towards Greenery in the past, but mainly through his newspaper columns. The last 5 prime ministers that we've had in the UK, starting with John Major, have been Green-leaning, but I suspect that Boris is a bit more sceptical about Greenery than any of those five.